Unseasonal snowfall blocks the path for migratory pastoralists

- Unseasonal snowfall in Jammu and Kashmir is disrupting the annual migration of pastoralist Gujjar-Bakarwal families, exposing them to difficult conditions along mountain routes. - Shrinking grazing windows are increasing livestock mortality and making seasonal movement unpredictable for pastoral communities who undergo “forced adaptation”. - Researchers and pastoral experts note that communities are abandoning ancestral grazing lands and moving into unfamiliar or high-risk territories. Last month, a Gujjar family from Rajouri district in Jammu and Kashmir had been on the move for days with their flock, heading towards Kashmir’s high-altitude pastures. When they reached Peer Ki Gali, about 50 kilometres from their destination Shopian, fresh snowfall brought their journey to a halt. Authorities suspended traffic on the Mughal Road, which connects Shopian with the relatively lower-altitude districts of Rajouri and Poonch, leaving the family stranded along the roadside. They waited in the cold weather without shelter, uncertain about when they could resume their journey. Snowfall this deep into May was something they had never encountered along this route. For communities whose lives depend on migration, the challenge is no longer just harsh weather, but increasing uncertainty in weather conditions. Every spring, Gujjars and Bakarwals, semi-nomadic tribes, undertake this seasonal migration with their livestock towards the upper reaches of Kashmir and the Chenab Valley. The journey, which can take over a month, follows routes shaped over generations by snow patterns, pasture cycles and traditional ecological knowledge. However, that rhythm is beginning to break. “It takes nearly a month for us to complete the journey,” said Talib Hussain, a Gujjar nomad, travelling from Sunderbani (south) towards Shopian (north) with his livestock. “The journey itself has become increasingly uncertain. Even this livestock does not sustain us properly anymore. Some animals die, some fall sick. We survive entirely on these animals. We have no farming land or any other source of income.” Delays during migration mean more than interrupted travel. Prolonged exposure, shrinking food supplies, weak livestock, and blocked routes can directly threaten livelihoods built entirely around seasonal movement. Migration in Jammu and Kashmir Jammu and Kashmir houses one of the largest transhumant populations in South Asia, primarily Gujjars and Bakarwals. Nearly 612,000 people undertake this seasonal movement annually towards highland grazing grounds known as Dhoks, with around 30,000 families travelling from Jammu province to Kashmir, along routes such as the National Highway-44 and the Mughal Road. Gujjar-Bakarwal transhumance has long been understood as an ecological adaptation, where pastoral communities respond to changing environmental conditions through carefully-timed seasonal mobility. This mobility in itself is climate adaptation, one that depends not just on environmental patterns, but also on their predictability. According to a 2025 study, these migration routes represent far more than physical travel, relying instead on generations of indigenous knowledge that connect landscape, weather and survival. Livelihoods at risk Javaid Rahi, a tribal researcher with about three decades of experience working with communities, also shares that irregular snowfall and shifting seasonal patterns are making traditional migration calendars less reliable. “Traditionally, migration relies on inherited ancestral and ecological knowledge, for instance when the snow begins to melt and which routes remain open,” Rahi said. “But changing weather patterns are starting to break those old patterns.” He added that a new trend of “reverse migration” has lately emerged, where many nomadic families are forced to return midway. “What is being disrupted is not just movement, but timing itself.” The disruption is forcing difficult decisions on the ground. Unpredictable snowfall severely obstructs traditional grazing grounds and migration paths, particularly in the high-altitude Pir Panjal range, according to Irfan Ali Banka, an anthropologist working in Jammu and Kashmir. When melting snow creates treacherous streams and slippery icebergs, pastoralists are forced to alter their routes. “This forced change in route comes with significant risks, as abandoning the mountain paths for the main road frequently leaves livestock at risk of road accidents, exhaustion, stress, and exposure to unfamiliar terrain,” Banka said. Banka is an Indian Council of Social Science Research (ICSSR) fellow who also receives government support for his ongoing research on pastoralism. Despite their close relationship with the environment, pastoral communities remain among the most climate-vulnerable groups in the Himalayan region. According to a study, focusing on the perceptions of the Gujjar and Bakarwal communities regarding climate change, rising temperatures and drying water sources at lower altitudes during winter are forcing pastoralists to begin their migration earlier than their traditional schedule. However, this has its own risks. “When communities are forced to migrate earlier in the spring, they often arrive at summer pastures where the snow has not yet melted, meaning the lands do not offer adequate grazing for the herds. This lack of fodder, combined with sudden drops in temperature, increases the mortality rate of newborn livestock, further damaging their economy,” the study reads. Choudhary Nawaab Nazir, chairman of the Gujjar Bakarwal Mahasabha told Mongabay-India that since their economy relies almost entirely on livestock, these weather disruptions pose an existential threat to their transhumant lifestyle. “Unexpected snowfall during migration is leading to the death of young goats, sheep and weak horses along mountain passes like Chattergalla and Sarthal,” he added. Recalling the loss of her three goats during recent snowfall along the migration route, Zareena, a Gujjar pastoralist from Rajouri, said the deaths were devastating for her family. “Our entire livelihood depends on these animals. Losing even a few goats means losing months of income and food for the family.” Shifting snowfall patterns and a fragile system at risk Experts say the problem is not just declining snowfall, but changing patterns. Studies on Himalayan pastoral systems point to unseasonal snowfall and shifting seasonal patterns as emerging challenges for transhumant communities that depend on ecological timing and pasture access. Faizan Arif, an independent weather forecaster, said Jammu and Kashmir has recorded seven consecutive deficient winters (with deficit in precipitation of snow and rain) since 2019–2020. During the 2025–2026 winter season, the region recorded nearly 65% below normal precipitation, while February saw an almost 90% deficit. “What we are observing now is not just a decline in snowfall, but a shift in its timing and consistency,” Arif said. “Snowfall events are becoming more irregular, with prolonged dry spells during peak winter followed by sudden and poorly timed spells extending into late spring.” After months of winter precipitation deficit, several upper reaches of Kashmir and Pir Panjal region received fresh spells of unseasonal snowfall and rain in mid-March and even May, temporarily blocking routes such as Mughal Road. Himalayan ecosystems are becoming increasingly vulnerable to climate variability and extreme weather events, said Irfan Rashid, an associate professor at the Department of Geo-informatics, University of Kashmir. Warming in the Himalaya has been occurring 50% faster than the global average since 1950. “This vulnerability is widely attributed to rapid warming, changing precipitation patterns, glacier retreat, and ever increasing anthropogenic pressures on fragile mountain landscapes,” Rashid said. Rising temperatures, altered precipitation, and shifting snowmelt are reshaping pasture phenology, shortening migration windows and destabilising fodder security. Anzar A. Khuroo, a professor at University of Kashmir, working on plant biodiversity and the ecology of the Kashmir Himalaya, said alpine grasslands in the region are highly sensitive to changes in snowfall and temperature patterns, making migratory pastoral communities increasingly vulnerable to climate disturbances. “As vegetation growth is critically dependent on the frequency of moisture, temperature and their seasonal distribution, any deviation from the usual snowfall or rainfall patterns significantly affects the grasslands on which pastoral communities depend,” Khuroo said. “When extreme weather events occur during the migration cycle, they directly impact pasture regeneration and shorten grazing windows.” Pastoralism in a changing Himalaya According to Shahid Sulaiman, founder of the Himalayan Pastoral Trust (HPT), a non-profit working to protect pastoral livelihoods, climate stress is not only disrupting migration routes, but also weakening the larger pastoral system. Ongoing research by HPT suggests migration cycles in parts of the western Himalayas have shifted by 15 to 20 days, while grazing landscapes have declined by half in the last two decades, said Sulaiman. Suleiman pointed to the emergence of “ghost pasturing”, where pastoralists are forced to abandon ancestral grazing lands and move into unfamiliar or high-risk territories due to environmental pressures and ecological instability. “Sudden snowfall or delayed snowmelt often prevents herders from reaching designated pastures, forcing families and livestock into unfamiliar spaces, including private agricultural land. This in turn increases tensions with local communities,” Suleiman told Mongabay-India. He added that many nomadic families still rely on radio-based forecasts that are often delayed and insufficient for real-time migration decisions. Rahi also pointed out that dissemination remains a major challenge. “Mobile connectivity is still unavailable in many upper reaches and high-altitude pastures frequented by nomadic and transhumant groups. As a result, even if forecasting improves, timely communication of weather alerts will remain difficult unless communication infrastructure such as mobile networks, satellite-based systems, or dedicated weather alert mechanisms are extended to these remote areas.” Describing the ongoing transition within pastoral communities as a “forced adaptation,” Suleiman said families are being pushed to alter centuries-old practices without institutional support mechanisms such as livestock insurance, emergency shelters or climate-linked migration assistance. Banner image: Nomadic shepherds guide their flock across the rugged Himalayan terrain along the Mughal Road near Pir Panjal Pass. Image by Faisal Bashir. Read more: Snow droughts intensify across the Hindu Kush Himalayas