Brewers Win First World Series, but Dark Winter Ahead for MLB

The Milwaukee Brewers clinched the first World Series title in franchise history Wednesday night with a five-game series victory of the Tampa Bay Rays. The clincher was a 4-1 win, led by ace Jacob Misiorowski’s 5 2/3 scoreless innings. Catcher William Contreras was named Series MVP. The Brewers were founded in 1969 as the Seattle Pilots before moving to Wisconsin the following year. Their only other World Series appearance was in 1982, but they rolled through this year’s playoffs with an 11-2 record. They narrowly missed becoming the first team to sweep the League Championship Series and World Series since the LCS switched to a best-of-seven format in 1985, by losing Game 4 in extra innings. The win leaves just four MLB franchises without a World Series trophy: the Rays, Colorado Rockies, San Diego Padres and Seattle Mariners. The Brewers won an MLB-high 103 games this year on their way to an eighth playoff appearance in nine years. They swept the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLCS, despite a luxury tax payroll of $155 million, versus $433 million for the Dodgers, per Spotrac—the Dodgers’ tax bill will be an additional $183 million. This was the first World Series this century that did not feature a team that ended the regular season in the top half of MLB’s salary payroll rankings. There still has not been a sweep in the Fall Classic since 2012, when the San Francisco Giants rolled over the Detroit Tigers. The extra game boosted the coffers of the Brewers and Rays. They each get only 7.5% of the ticket revenue for the first four games, with 60% of the gate allocated to the players’ playoff pool. They split revenue fueled by sky-high ticket prices for Games 5 through 7—the other 25% of gate revenue goes to the commissioner’s office and a fund that pays umpires. The minimalist Fall Classic prevented Fox from capitalizing on a deep advertising bench. While official MLB sponsors snapped up a good chunk of the advertising inventory—among the heaviest spenders were Capital One, Geico, T-Mobile and Google—the category mix was reassuringly broad. Tech spend was particularly robust, and Big Pharma demonstrated the level of support befitting the World Series demographic; as these categories are among the most willing to pay a premium in scatter, a six- or seven-game set may have been particularly lucrative for the rights-holder. While there’s no sense in counting chickens now that the omelet bar is open for business, Fox may have had a chance to put up some big numbers if Rays-Brewers had continued through Halloween night. Per Nielsen, Game 1 averaged a solid 12.26 million viewers across all platforms, while Game 2 experienced the usual Saturday night dip (10.85 million). A World Series win is typically a boon the following year for a franchise. Attendance goes up, and teams can push higher prices for tickets, suites and sponsorships coming off a championship run. The Atlanta Braves averaged 38,641 fans per game in 2022 after winning the prior year’s Series. It was up 18% from 2019—comparisons are tricky to 2021, which had limited capacity to start the year due to COVID-19. Houston Astros attendance popped 14% after their 2022 title, and the Texas Rangers’ victory in 2023 produced a 5% gain, despite the team never having a winning record after May 18. Yet, the 2027 MLB season will not be your typical season and will likely dent the Brewers’ chances of fully monetizing their World Series title. The league and its players’ union are heading for an ugly fight, years in the making. Tough talk leading up to CBA expirations is typical, but many people who have been around the game a long time have echoed the same sentiment; this time feels different than the previous six negotiations, which avoided any missed regular season games. The current CBA expires Dec. 1, and the heart of the negotiation is a salary cap, which has been a third-rail issue for the MLB Players Association. Baseball argues that a salary cap and floor like the three other biggest North American sports leagues would drive more competitive balance. Brewers owner Mark Attanasio, who serves on the owners’ labor relations committee, has publicly pushed a salary cap. “The system that’s being proposed, which is similar to other leagues in terms of revenue-sharing system, not only will help us compete, but more importantly all of the teams with lower payrolls, too, which is something also I think the fans want,” Attanasio told the media ahead of the World Series start. Sportico franchise valuations data shows MLB severely lagging the other leagues in recent years. The average NHL team is up 140% since Sportico’s 2022 valuations, to $2.43 billion. The NFL average is up 126% to $9.34 billion, while the average NBA team is now worth $6.64 billion, up 121% since 2022. MLB is up “only” 37% to $3.17 billion, but much of that slower growth is a function of the impending work stoppage and the meltdown of the regional sports network model. The MLB Players Association argues the league simply wants to reduce player costs as a way to increase profits and drive franchise valuations higher. It points to the two low-payroll teams in the 2026 World Series, and says recent sales of the Padres for $3.9 billion and Los Angeles Angels for $4 billion show the system is working.