Roland Garros Upsets Leave Massive Opportunity in Men’s Field

There will be a new men’s major champion at Roland Garros this year. Novak Djokovic lost in the third round 4-6, 4-6, 6-3, 7-5, 7-5 to Brazilian 19-year-old João Fonseca on Friday, sending the tennis Grand Slams into a state of rare unpredictability. One day earlier, No. 1 seed Jannik Sinner lost in a five-setter to Juan Manuel Cerúndolo after suffering from cramping and heat exhaustion; he had been a game away from ending the match in straight sets. With those top contenders out of the bracket, there are no men remaining who have won a Grand Slam. It’s the first time in the Open Era that no former champions have reached the round of 16 at a major. In the top half of the draw, only one player has ever even been to a major final—Matteo Berrettini. No. 2 seed Alexander Zverev, in the draw’s lower half, is now the clear favorite, with +120 odds to win the event on DraftKings. The German, who has been dogged by domestic abuse allegations but never convicted, has reached three major finals and 10 major semifinals in his career, though he has frequently come up empty on the biggest stage. He has made $62.6 million in prize money, the seventh most all-time on the ATP Tour. The tournament winner’s prize of approximately $3.3 million is greater than the career earnings for nine of the 25 players still alive—that includes teenage Spaniard Rafael Jodar, who has the second-best odds right now at +500. For six others, including Fonseca, winning the trophy would boost their lifetime on-court winnings by at least 50%. Collectively, the 24 players other than Zverev have made $199 million in prize money. For comparison, Djokovic himself has made $193 million. At the 2026 Australian Open, a historic number of favorites won, as seven of the top eight seeds advanced to the quarterfinals. The 2026 French Open has been the opposite—just two of the top eight seeds are still in it. Since 2000, an average of 4.6 of the top eight seeds have reached the quarterfinals per year at Roland Garros. Tennis fans are used to stability. Three players—Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Djokovic—combined to win 65 of the 79 majors between 2004 and 2023. That period of extended dominance was immediately followed by a stretch of nine straight majors won by just two players: Carlos Alcaraz and Sinner. Djokovic’s loss to Fonseca, who wasn’t even born yet the first time Djokovic played on Court Philippe-Chatrier at Roland Garros, felt like another moment in the transition of generations from the Big Three to the current one. So far, this new era has been as predictable as the last, but perhaps that’s changing. There is massive potential for Jodar, Fonseca or one of the other young players in the draw, such as 20-year-old American Learner Tien or 17-year-old Frenchman Moise Kouamé, to win over a lot of supporters. We’re about to see how much tennis fans care about a major tournament without bankable stars.